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Unemployment and Violence

Is there a connection between unemployment and insurgent violence?¬†We draw on new data from USAID’s Community Development Program (CDP), a large-scale employment program in Afghanistan, to examine whether economic assistance can decrease insurgent violence by reducing unemployment. The CDP was implementated in 2010-12 across many of the most violent districts in Afghanistan, creating a difficult test for assessing the effectiveness of the program. We implement a new form of dynamic spatial point process modeling to estimate the effects of the program over space and time. We are especially interested in measuring spillover from work sites into other neighboring villages and areas.

 

Photocredit: USAID

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